Steven: Bob Krumm and Vox Popoli have offered their predictions of a McCain victory and seem to emerge with similar numbers as yours, if not even better. Over at Hot Air, Morrissey takes the optimistic approach while Allahpundit plays the pessimist, as always.
I think there are a great deal of factors which undercut the CW in this election. But I think the CW will also tend to undercut some of the turnout for McCain. Y’all best hope for the Mac to perform well on the East Coast, because early calls for Obama based on worthless exit polling will surely occur at some point, depressing GOP turnout even further in the West.
Between Joe the Plumber and “Coal-gate,” McCain-Palin have absolutely owned the message of recent weeks. Obama and Biden have retreated to their bunkers. Have McCain and Palin dropped enough of their bunker-busters to break through, or will Obama coast to the White House as the least experience, least vetted, and most radical candidate ever?
My predictions:
More nail-biters than anticipated, for both sides. GOP retains at least 43 Senators but slips a wee bit in the House, as well. In North Carolina, Dole loses her Senate seat but a Republican takes the governor’s mansion for the first time in twenty years.
Obama wins Virginia, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, and the popular vote (but barely); McCain wins Penn, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri, New Hampshire, and the presidency with 272 electoral votes to Obama’s 266.
It all comes back down to the Granite State, where Hillary roared back into the Democratic primary contest, and where McCain launched his campaigns in 2000 and 2008!
UPDATE: Roger Kimball’s prediction squares exactly with my sentiments–he has some serious doubts, but he wants to believe. Could we really pass upon a man of McCain’s credentials and character for this embodiment of Chicago-style politics?
Nevertheless, I continue to think McCain can pull victory from the jaws of defeat. Why? Not because of any complex statistical alchemy but for the simple old fashioned reason that I do not believe the instinct for self-preservation has been entirely bred out of the American electorate.
November 4, 2008 at 3:19 pm |
[...] will go (scroll to bottom of page). I already published my electoral college prediction–boldly optimistic for an extremely narrow McCain victory. But it’s vital that we consider these words from [...]